The Cautious Horse

Chelsea are undefeated this season in all competitions. In the league they have won all but two of their matches, against the two Manchester clubs and both those matches were played away from home. Things don’t look so bad at the moment eh? However volatile the league table may look currently, the toughest test Chelsea faced so far this season were these two matches. And the score line was the same. 1-1. Go one step further and chip in the Champions league results too. Two victories, one draw so far. Score? 1-1.

Chelsea's 'Little Horse' is all grown up but is cautious around the big boys.

Now if there ever was such a result as a ‘good draw’ for a top team like Chelsea it would have to be a hard fought 0-0 against an equally strong opposition. The second best would be 1-1. No need to panic. Time to move on. Except, there is a trend in all three matches and it is somewhat disturbing. Chelsea were leading in all three, only to go on to relinquish the lead, and somewhat tragically in the last minute against Manchester United last night. The question is, were the matches winnable? One was at home to a German team in crisis. The other was against a Manchester City side that was down to 10. The third against a team that was taken to the dead by Leicester City. No disrespect to either.

The thing is, Chelsea isn’t a ‘little horse’ anymore. Outside of Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Barcelona and perhaps Manchester City, Chelsea have the most complete squad in Europe at the moment. There is no need to be defending a 1-0 lead from the 60^th minute against Manchester United, whose defence has been woeful. Chelsea looked content with a 1-0 score line against 10 men at the Etihad. It shows too much respect to the opposition. And Jose Mourinho will perhaps be thinking the same. You only need to look at the games City and United have lost this season to get a full understanding of what could have been for Chelsea. Manchester United haven’t been coping well against counterattacking oppositions. City have struggled against the likes of West Ham who have upped their game and are actually playing very good football. And if you consider Schalke, well, they have been a tragedy this season.

Mourinho has been using John Obi Mikel as a 3-point insurance policy. While it makes tactical sense to do so, should he really be brought on to facilitate a 1-0 lead with over one-third of the game still to play? Against Manchester United there was absolutely no threat after Drogba scored the wonderful header. The devils had their backs against the wall and were there for the taking. But Mikel’s addition changed the winning formula for the worse by inviting unnecessary pressure from a world class attack. Oscar’s withdrawal meant that Chelsea’s attacking impetus was lost. They defended deep and paid the price. Imagine if such a thing happened in the Champions League knockouts this season. It did last season against Atletico Madrid when Chelsea decided to defend a 1-0 lead at home. But let bygones be bygone.

This season has only just begun. With only a quarter of the season gone, Chelsea sit at the top with 22 points, 4 ahead of second place Southampton. If Chelsea reproduce the same numbers in the next 3 quarters, they’ll end the season undefeated with 88 points, perhaps clinching the Premier League title along the way. However, it may be a slight underachievement considering what Jose Mourinho’s new-look Chelsea are capable of. With a little more self-belief and aggression it could easily have been a 100% record in all competitions. The season is long and full of twists. For it to be successful you need to grab what is in front of you and some. On the whole, Mourinho would look back and think he let 4 points slip through his fingers. And why wouldn't he? His stallion could have galloped out of sight if only for a few whips of encouragement.

The Deal That Suits Everyone

The Departure of Romelu Lukaku

So after a prolonged will-it won’t-it transfer saga, Romelu Lukaku is finally a £28 million Everton player. As I had referred to a possible transfer in my previous blog (http://footballhotspotblog.blogspot.in/) on Jose Mourinho’s clever transfer dealings at Chelsea over the last two transfer windows, Lukaku’s sale takes their net transfer outlay over the last two windows to £19.5 million in the green. Not bad for a buying club eh? But what does Lukaku’s departure mean to the three stake holders? Could it be a case win-win-win?

Many are arguing that Chelsea were forced into the Lukaku sale. But there appear to be two versions of the story. Lukaku’s version, “I didn't want to spend 10 years on the bench” (source: London Evening Standard, 31^st July) and Mourinho’s version “he (Lukaku) was not highly motivated to come to a competitive situation at Chelsea” (source ESPN, 31^st July). With the differently abled Fernando Torres, pensioner Didier Drogba and untested maverick Patrick Bamford on the bench, surely Chelsea could have tossed Big Rom some important games. It only leads you to believe that for all his talent, Chelsea didn’t believe Lukaku to be worth more than what he was sold for. But a closer examination reveals that, oddly enough, things are looking good for everyone involved.

From Everton’s point of view, they have a marquee signing who is more likely to raise his fee than the other way around. It’s hard to see them make a loss on their club record signing. By the look of things, Fellaini paid for Lukaku. And that’s good for the Merseyside club because the afro-haired compatriot has not faired too well since. Everton are serious about their ambitions. They got their best players, Barkley and Baines, to stay and the best players on loan at their club last season, Lukaku and Barry, to join them permanently. Either spend paltry sums on players like Vellios, who are good stand-ins but don’t add much value, or make statement signings who will not only add great value to the squad but would sell for a profit later on if required. Smart move by the toffees.

From the Lukaku corner, things couldn’t be clearer. He is still only 21 and has many years to improve. If he is willing to learn and stay humble, which he clearly had problems doing, sky is the limit for the big man. If his loan spells are anything to go by, the lad can play. On the other hand, while Lukaku’s confidence in his own ability is encouraging to see, his morbid fear of competition is sure to raise a few eyebrows. Big fish in a small pond syndrome? While that is very disrespectful to Everton, it smells of that from Lukaku. This season is pivotal for the Belgian. He will either add a couple of million or shed a few pounds. A 20+ goal tally in the league will have suitors lining up and there is no reason why shouldn’t get there, now that he has an environment that he desperately craved.

For Chelsea, it looks like it could turn out to be a Sturridge situation in the long run (who they sold in January, 2013 for £12 million and who has since more than doubled his value) but there is a lot of sense to be made which doesn’t immediately catch the eye. The Sturridge comparisons are justified. Similar age, similar potential, similar position, both had hugely rewarding loan spells and Chelsea made a profit on both of them. But they are players of two very different profiles. From a tactical and financial point of view, the Sturridge sale was an A-grade disaster. Chelsea’s trio of attacking midfielders force the opposition to recede which means you need a striker who can work in tight spaces. Sturridge is that man. Lukaku however, is not. Not yet, anyway. He didn’t fit their immediate need. So what did they do? Moved him on and bough Diego Costa for a slightly larger amount. In effect, Lukaku paid for Costa who is the man they needed. So they will give the Belgian a ‘Thank You’ letter on his way out.

However it doesn’t end there for Chelsea despite Mourinho’s desperate attempts to underplay any further activity in the transfer window. “We finished the market today," said Mourinho. "The transfer market closes (on) 31 August and we close on July 19” (source: BBC, July 19^th). With a profit of almost £20 in his pocket and a possibility of offloading more players, only a naïve person would take Mourinho for his word.

Chelsea fans and the football world at large could be in for a surprise. Thanks to players like Lukaku who were, after all, a surplus to requirements.

You Old Fox, Jose

While the rest of the football loving fraternity had been enchanted, seduced and absorbed by the memorable world cup this summer, the old fox Jose Mourinho was up to some cunning business. How is that news you ask? Well, this time he has surpassed even his own lofty standards. In fact, what Jose Mourinho has achieved this time is unprecedented and will reverberate for years to come. Simply put, he has dismantled, rearranged, refurbished and rebuilt his Chelsea squad not just in record time but while hardly spending a penny in the process. To top it all off, he has made the intimidating task of rebuilding the squad look hopelessly effortless, even winning some friends along the way. To understand the magnitude of what he has accomplished, continue reading!

Before I continue, let me point out that there are two mutually inclusive perspectives of examining this subject. First, a somewhat boring but undeniably imperative financial perspective. Second, what these developments in West London mean to the team from a tactical point of view. For the benefit of the argument, I will cast glances at the financial implications first and then touch upon the tactical viewpoint.

Consider the following transfers concluded during the winter and summer transfer* windows of 2014, as on 27^th July:

*Only those transfers where financial transactions are involved have been represented.

Players Sold:

·         David Luiz (27)                   : £50 million

·         Juan Mata  (26)                   : £37 million

·         Kevin De Bruyne (23)         : £18 million

·         Demba Ba (29)                    : £5 million

·         Patrick van Aanholt (23)      : £1.5 million

Total:                                  : £111.5 million

Players Bought:

·         Diego Costa (25)               : £32 million

·         Cesc Fabregas (27)           : £28 million

·         Nemanja Matic (25)          : £21 million

·         Filipe Luis (29)                  : £16 million

·         Mohammad Salah (22)      : £13 million

·         Kurt Zouma (19)               : £ 12 million

·         Mario Pasalic (19)             : £ 3 million

Total:                                : £124 million

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So essentially we are looking at a net outlay of £12.5 million over the last two transfer windows during which Mourinho has completely overhauled the squad, addressing all the key issues along the way. To make it look better, Manchester United paid almost three times that amount to acquire the services of a 19 year old continentally untested full-back on earthshattering wages from Southampton - a deal Mourinho himself avoided fearing such a move would “kill” the club. Further, if speculation is to be believed, Chelsea are looking to offload either Fernando Torres (£15 million) or Romelu Lukaku (£25 million), the proceeds from which would not only balance the transfer books but might also result in a net profit – a rare commodity at Chelsea if the last 10 years are anything to go by. And that tells you only half the story.

Chelsea were in the business of signing players who were in the peak of their careers for exorbitant amounts and on handsome salaries, only to lose them as free agents at the end of their contracts (see Bosingwa). Although this strategy resulted in some world class players representing the club like Didier Drogba, Michael Ballack, Claude Makelele, Michael Essien and the likes, it always drew the wrath of opposition supporters who accused Chelsea of ‘buying’ success; which in hindsight seems a perfectly logical assessment. However, the envy of the opposition fans will hardly hurt the club. On the contrary, it will always remind them of their success. Rather, it was their failure to abide by Financial Fair Play that was pushing them towards the UEFA red-zone. Tables have turned. First friend made, Monsieur Platini.

Now they are buying hoards of young, talented players and developing them at their fine Cobham training ground. If they don’t make the cut, they are either loaned for further development (Lucas Piazon) or sold for a profit (de Bruyne). If they make the cut (Eden Hazard) or return from a successful loan (Thibuat Courtois), you double or triple the value. There are of course exceptions (Marko Marin) but these are few and far in between. In any case, you make at least 75% on your investment.

If the numbers above don’t tell you the full story or you have just woken up from coma after few years out, let me tell you: Chelsea robbed PSG with that David Luiz fee. And it was no ordinary heist. It was a meticulously planned rip-off that represented a win-win-win for Chelsea. Supremely talented error-prone brilliantly unpredictable centre-back out, check. 50 million Pounds in the bag, double check. The third victory is in the shape of a threat to other teams to mortgage their stadium before approaching Chelsea for their superstars, of which there will be plenty in supply in the years to come. Triple check. The same can be said about the Juan Mata sale, however it wasn’t as bad. The player was sold for just about the right market price but Manchester United were forced to pay a club record fee and Chelsea did not even flinch for a second while accepting the cheque. Kevin de Bruyne was not wanted by the manager but still fetched him a cool 150% profit on investment (bought for £7 million). All three were bought young and sold for mercurial profits. Demba Ba was sold at a small loss but at 29 and on the fringes, selling for any fee is laudable even for a good player like Demba.

Other players released on free transfers so far: Frank Lampard, Ashley Cole, Samuel Eto’o and Henrique Hilario, some of who were top earners at the club, thereby freeing up the wage bill. As a result Chelsea are surprisingly low on the wage charts today (6^th in world football) whereas they were topping it some years back. Again, just to make an example of it, Luke Shaw at Manchester United is being paid £160,000 (reported) per week, a figure that is more than the combined weekly wages of Cesar Azpilicueta (not more than £80,000) and Filipe Luis (£80,000) who play in the same league and position as the Englishman but are without doubt better that him at this point.

But the real implication of these transfers stretches even further.

Champions League final 2012 Starting XI:

4-2-3-1

Drogba

Bertrand – Mata – Kalou

Mikel – Lampard

Cole – David Luiz – Cahill – Bosingwa

Cech

So what has happened to the Champions League winning team?

Two years later, only Gary Cahill, apart from maybe Petr Cech, from that squad can genuinely stake a claim as a first team player for the forthcoming season (2014-15). With Bertrand agonizingly close to the exit, the only other that remains at the club is John Obi Mikel and for how long? Drogba has re-joined the club but surely only as a fringe player. You’d be forgiven if you concluded you were watching an entirely different team at Stamford Bridge this season.

What the Blues of 2014-15 might look like:

4-3-3

Hazard (Schurrle) – Costa (Torres) – Willian (Salah)

Fabregas (Romeu) – Matic (Mikel) – Oscar (Ramires)

Filipe Luis (Ake) – Terry (Ivanovic) – Cahill (Zouma) – Azpilicueta (Ivanovic)

Courtois (Cech)

Mourinho has not only assembled a truly devastating squad to replace the overachieving batch of 2012, but also a younger and hungrier one. He claims his business in done in the transfer window. Although his words must always be taken with a pinch of salt, the squad itself looks complete. It stinks of quality, top to bottom. One that may not have a Messi or a Ronaldo, but one that has a better balance than even the almighty clubs those two mercurial players represent. The transition period under Mourinho was so smooth it could be mistaken for pedestrian. It is the most discreetly, yet ruthlessly, orchestrated transitions in recent memory and could lay claim as one of the best too.

Jose Mourinho often gets all the attention for the wrong reasons and doesn’t always get the credit he deserves. He remains a deeply polarising figure in world football, one that may inspire awe or abject nausea, mostly depending on what colour you wear. His work, however, is unquestionable. Though one may look at his last two seasons, the only two trophy-less of his distinguished career, and wonder if that ‘special’ touch is waning. That maybe the “little horse” talk was an alibi for depleting competence or, even worse, confidence. But don’t write off the Portuguese just yet. He may not rub you the right way or play the most entertaining brand of football but he has immaculately built a rock solid foundation that could as well prove to be a wending machine for trophies. All that at a cost that is surely a ‘Special One’.